Last week, a jury in Manhattan convicted Donald Trump on 34 felony counts, but instead of condemning their former president, Republicans came together and claimed that this verdict would only hurt Joe Biden’s chances in the upcoming presidential election.
However, recent polling data raises questions about this argument, as a significant number of Americans in critical voting blocs seem to be shifting their support towards Biden following the verdict.
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After analyzing almost 2,000 interviews with voters who have previously participated in New York Times/Siena College surveys, it was found that Trump’s lead over the president has decreased from three points to one point. Although this shift may appear minor, it could potentially play a crucial role in a tight presidential race, which is anticipated in this year’s election. The electoral college was only prevented from a tie in 2020 by a mere 44,000 votes across three battleground states.
The areas where Trump seems to be losing support are causing concern for his campaign. As per the analysis conducted by The Times, voters who lean towards the Democratic party but are disengaged, as well as those who dislike both Trump and Biden, were more inclined to re-evaluate their options in the election after hearing the verdict.
In the past few months, both voting groups have contributed greatly to Trump’s rise in popularity. Approximately one-fourth of those who voted for Biden in the last election and previously expressed their support for Trump have now confirmed their backing for the incumbent president. The “double haters,” who dislike both candidates, are expected to have a significant impact this year. According to the Times analysis, Trump is losing over 20% of his pre-verdict support among this group of voters.
Revised: People’s reactions to the guilty verdict in the Trump trial were intense, with some expressing satisfaction at the possibility of seeing him in prison.
After Trump’s conviction, there is limited polling data available. However, one post-verdict survey conducted by the Republican firm Echelon Insights has corroborated the Times’ findings. The study showed that Biden had a two-point lead over Trump among recontacted voters. Before the jury delivered its verdict, the same respondents’ answers indicated a tie between the two candidates.
However, there are still warning signs for Biden, especially in the battleground states crucial for his re-election. A recent Quinnipiac University poll of Georgia voters, a state Biden won by a narrow margin of 0.2 points in 2020, revealed Trump leading by five points in a head-to-head contest against the incumbent. Nonetheless, the poll’s margin of error makes this result inconclusive. When independent candidate Robert F Kennedy and other candidates were included in the poll, Trump’s lead expanded to six points, which exceeded the margin of error.
The survey revealed that despite Biden lagging behind in Georgia, half of the voters in the crucial state concurred with the ruling in the Manhattan case. This highlights the conflicting emotions aroused by Trump’s conviction.
