Abortion rights have been a hotly debated issue since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. However, several states including Michigan, Ohio, California, and Vermont have taken action by approving measures that protect abortion rights in their state constitutions. This year, voters in at least four states will once again have the opportunity to vote on abortion-related measures. Early polling suggests that these measures are receiving significant support from voters across the political spectrum, regardless of whether they reside in red, blue, or purple states.
Florida voters are set to vote on Amendment 4, which aims to establish the constitutional right to abortion up to fetal viability and overturn the current six-week abortion ban in the state. Despite facing opposition, polls show that the proposal has strong support, with double-digit leads. However, for the amendment to pass, it requires 60 percent of voters to approve the ballot measure, not just a simple majority, making its passage far from guaranteed. While recent polls indicate sufficient support for the amendment’s passing, the average across six polls since April shows only 56 percent in favor.
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In Nevada and Arizona, citizen-led initiatives are underway to safeguard abortion rights throughout the Sun Belt states. Currently, abortion is permitted in Nevada up to the 24th week of pregnancy, which is around the time when fetal viability is deemed to commence. The proposed measure seeks to incorporate the right to an abortion in the state’s constitution up to fetal viability, thus making it harder for future legislators to overturn it. The proponents of the initiative claim to have garnered sufficient signatures, but whether the proposal will feature on the ballot will not be confirmed until after the state’s signature filing deadline on June 26. Although there have been only two polls conducted in Nevada this year, both indicate that the measure would pass with a comfortable majority. According to a survey by Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research/Fox News, 73 percent of voters stated earlier this week that they would support an abortion-rights amendment, while 68 percent of respondents said the same to Noble Predictive Insights in March. Approximately one in five respondents in both polls expressed opposition to the proposed measure.
Four pollsters have conducted surveys among voters on Arizona’s abortion-rights initiative. The initiative aims to amend the state constitution and protect abortion from state interference before fetal viability. The results showed that 58 percent of voters would support the amendment, while 30 percent would oppose it, and 13 percent were undecided. Presently, Arizona permits abortion up to 15 weeks. Earlier this year, the state Supreme Court refused to overturn a Civil War-era law that would have imposed a near-total ban on abortion. However, the state legislature repealed the law.
Measures aimed at protecting abortion rights are set to be featured on the ballot in Colorado, Maryland, and South Dakota. While there are currently no polls available for the measures in Colorado or Maryland, a May poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy/South Dakota News Watch/Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota revealed that 53% of voters in deep-red South Dakota supported the proposed amendment to overturn the state’s total ban on abortion, with only 35% opposing it. If passed, the measure would prevent the state from regulating abortions during the first trimester of pregnancy.
Will Democrats be able to leverage the issue of abortion to their advantage in the upcoming November elections, as they did in 2022? Abortion proved to be a defining issue during the midterms, as Democrats exceeded expectations after campaigning extensively on the topic following the Dobbs decision. Abortion remains a top priority for many voters, particularly Democrats. According to the latest YouGov/The Economist poll, 87 percent of Democrats consider abortion to be “very” or “somewhat” important, with 12 percent citing it as their most critical concern. Among all adults, this figure was only 7 percent.
Abortion may become a hot topic once again this summer, as the conservative-controlled Supreme Court is set to decide on two significant abortion cases, one of which involves mifepristone, commonly known as the abortion pill. However, if the court rules in favor of anti-abortion measures, it may not necessarily translate to a boost for Democrats. A recent example of this is the defeat of a liberal challenger in a Georgia Supreme Court race, despite his campaign focus on abortion rights. This could indicate a scenario where abortion measures pass with ease, while Democrats further up the ballot face challenges.
In the past, voters have shown a tendency to split tickets, as seen in the 2022 elections in Kentucky. Despite rejecting an anti-abortion constitutional amendment, Republican Senator Rand Paul was reelected and the GOP maintained its majority in the state legislature that put the referendum on the ballot. Furthermore, Democrats nationwide are not as popular as the issue of abortion, with both parties polling at 45 percent according to 538’s generic ballot polling average. Although abortion is expected to remain a winning issue, it remains uncertain if it will give Democrats the boost they need in the upcoming November elections.
