Marina
The October 2025 federal government shutdown threatens to complicate the 2026 COLA (cost‑of‑living adjustment) for SSI (Supplemental Security Income) and Social Security benefits.
While the Social Security Administration (SSA) insists that beneficiaries will still receive payments on time, the data delays may push back the official COLA announcement—leaving millions of Americans in uncertainty.
What the October 2025 Shutdown Entails
On October 1, 2025, the U.S. federal government entered a shutdown after Congress failed to pass new appropriations.
Roughly 900,000 federal employees were furloughed, with many others working without pay.
Essential operations—such as Social Security and Medicare payments—are considered “mandatory spending” and continue during a shutdown.
The shutdown led to a partial pause at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), particularly in the processing and release of inflation data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is vital to determining COLA.
SSI & Social Security Payments: What Remains Unchanged
Even during the shutdown:
- All currently eligible recipients of Social Security or SSI benefits will continue to receive payments on time, with no change in payment dates.
- However, many administrative services (e.g. proof of benefit letters, earnings record updates, Medicare card replacements) may be delayed or unavailable during the shutdown.
Thus, while your monthly benefit income should not be disrupted, uncertainty lies in the COLA announcement and related adjustments.
How COLA Is Normally Calculated
The SSA computes the annual COLA using the CPI‑W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers). The formula compares the average CPI‑W for July, August, and September of the current year with the same quarter a year prior.
Each October, after the BLS publishes the September CPI, SSA issues the official COLA announcement—typically around October 15.
If inflation is higher, benefits increase by that percentage; if inflation is flat or negative, benefits may see no increase.
How the Shutdown Impacts the 2026 COLA
Delays in CPI Release
Due to the shutdown, the BLS paused many operations, including publishing the September CPI, which was initially scheduled for October 15.
To salvage the process, the government has recalled furloughed BLS employees specifically to finalize and release inflation data.As a result, the CPI report is now expected on October 24 rather than the standard mid‑October release.
Delayed COLA Announcement
Because the COLA depends on the CPI data, SSA’s official 2026 COLA announcement is likely postponed until after the revised CPI release.
However, experts and analysts continue to estimate a probable COLA rate:
- Many forecasts point to 2.7% for 2026, slightly above the 2025 increase of 2.5%.
- Some projections suggest as high as 2.8%.
- Under a 2.7% adjustment, average monthly Social Security benefits would rise by about $54, bringing many retiree payments to approximately $2,062.
Possible Risks & Scenarios
- If the shutdown extends close to January 2026, in theory the COLA implementation could face further delays.
- But in past shutdowns (e.g., 2013), COLA was delayed by a few weeks but still enacted on schedule in January.
- SSA maintains that benefits (including SSI) are mandatory and will not be withheld due to the shutdown.
Summary of Key Impacts
| Issue | Effect / Status |
|---|---|
| Benefit payments | Still delivered on time—no change in dates |
| Administrative services | Delays or unavailability in non‑essential services |
| CPI (September) release | Delayed from Oct 15 to approx. Oct 24 |
| Official 2026 COLA announcement | Postponed until CPI data is available |
| Projected COLA | ~2.7%, possibly up to 2.8% |
| Monthly increase estimate | ≈ $54 for average Social Security recipient |
| Implementation timing | Likely normal Jan 2026 start unless shutdown remains very prolonged |
What You Should Do
- Budget cautiously: Don’t assume the COLA will be immediate—plan for possible delay.
- Monitor official SSA updates: The SSA will announce once CPI data is finalized.
- Stay informed on shutdown developments: A resolution may restore normal timelines.
- Avoid relying solely on projected increases: Use estimates as guides, not guarantees.
The October 2025 government shutdown brings uncertainty to the 2026 SSI and Social Security COLA increase, primarily through delays in critical inflation data needed to calculate adjustments. Though your benefit payments remain protected, the timing and certainty of the COLA announcement are in flux.
While forecasts point to a 2.7% increase, beneficiaries should prepare for delays, monitor official updates, and budget flexibly. In times like these, awareness and patience are key to navigating the temporary turbulence.