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The Kansas City Chiefs are facing one of the most important phases of their season as they prepare to host the Houston Texans on Sunday night.
Although Kansas City is listed as a modest 3.5-point favorite, the team cannot afford any slip-ups if it hopes to stay alive in the playoff race.
Chiefs In Must-Win Mode
With only five games remaining, the Chiefs need to win all five matchups, or at minimum four, to keep their postseason dreams alive.
Every game now carries significant weight, making their upcoming showdown at Arrowhead Stadium even more critical.
Analysts from The Athletic say the Chiefs’ playoff chances jump to 98% if they win out against the Texans, Chargers, Titans, Broncos, and Raiders.
But the picture changes dramatically if they lose even once.
How One Loss Impacts Kansas City’s Playoff Odds
A single defeat could heavily influence the Chiefs’ postseason hopes, depending on who delivers the loss. Here’s how the odds shift if Kansas City finishes the stretch 4–1:
- Losing to Houston drops their chances to 39%.
- Falling to the Chargers lowers the odds to 43%.
- A defeat against the Titans still leaves a 68% chance.
- A loss to the Raiders sets their postseason likelihood at 56%.
Chiefs players understand what is at stake. After the Thanksgiving loss to Dallas, the quarterback summarized the pressure clearly: “You’ve got to win every game now, and hope that’s enough.”
Texans Players To Watch
The Texans’ defense is powered by elite pass-rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who have combined for 21.5 sacks this season.
- Hunter sits tied for fourth in the NFL with 11 sacks.
- Anderson follows closely with 10.5, ranking sixth.
Anderson has recorded a sack in six of his last seven games, while Hunter has notched one in three of his last four.
Chiefs Players to Watch
Kansas City’s focus shifts to whoever steps in across the offensive line.
- LT Josh Simmons is out on injured reserve due to wrist surgery.
- RG Trey Smith (ankle) and RT Jawaan Taylor (triceps) are also expected to miss the game.
Backups Wanya Morris, Mike Caliendo, and Jaylon Moore are likely to fill the gaps, making their performance a major storyline.
Key On-Field Battle: Chiefs Run Game vs. Texans Defense
Kansas City performs best when it maintains offensive balance, but that will be tested against a Houston defense that ranks:
- 4th against the run
- 1st in total defense
- 1st in scoring defense
If the Chiefs become too pass-dependent, their offense tends to unravel — something they must avoid in such a pivotal matchup.
Injury Updates
Texans Injuries
Players who missed Wednesday’s practice include:
- Will Anderson Jr. (chest/shoulder)
- RB Woody Marks (foot)
- CB Kamari Lassiter (foot)
Coach DeMeco Ryans expects them to be ready, though OL Ed Ingram (hand) and DT Tim Settle Jr. (foot) are questionable.
Chiefs Injuries
- Josh Simmons placed on IR
- Trey Smith, Jawaan Taylor, and Chris Roland-Wallace are also likely out due to injuries
These absences create major concerns for Kansas City’s offensive front.
Series History
The Chiefs hold a dominant record against Houston, winning five straight meetings, including playoff victories in January 2020 and January 2024.
The Texans have just two wins in the last 11 matchups, with their most recent victory at Arrowhead coming on October 13, 2019.
The Kansas City Chiefs are entering a defining moment in their 2025 season. With playoff odds shifting sharply based on each remaining game, Sunday’s showdown with the Houston Texans carries enormous importance.
Kansas City must execute with precision, overcome key injuries, and find offensive balance against one of the league’s toughest defenses.
A win keeps their postseason hopes alive — but a loss could drastically narrow their path to January football.
FAQs
Why is this game so important for the Chiefs?
Because Kansas City needs to win at least four of its last five games to stay in strong playoff contention.
Which Texans players are expected to impact the game most?
Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who together have 21.5 sacks, are the Texans’ biggest defensive threats.
What makes the Texans’ defense challenging for Kansas City?
Houston ranks first in total and scoring defense and fourth against the run, making them one of the toughest units in the league.