Mandy
The Falcons vs Buccaneers matchup takes center stage in Week 15 as Tampa Bay hosts Atlanta in a crucial Thursday Night Football showdown with major NFC South implications.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7–6) step back into the national spotlight in Week 15 with a Thursday Night Football home matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (4–9) at Raymond James Stadium.
Tampa Bay enters the game as a 4.5-point home favorite, while Atlanta was officially eliminated from playoff contention in Week 14.
Despite their postseason exit, the Falcons are expected to approach the matchup with a spoiler’s mindset, aiming to disrupt Tampa Bay’s push toward a fifth straight NFC South title.
Why Experts Are Backing Tampa Bay
Following a disappointing and, as one analyst described it, a “weird” Week 14 loss to the Saints, many national experts believe this matchup sets up as a rebound game for the Buccaneers.
Several analysts pointed specifically to Baker Mayfield, predicting a “get-right” performance for the quarterback and the Buccaneers’ offense as a whole.
Confidence in Tampa Bay has been strengthened by the potential return of key offensive contributors, including:
- Mike Evans
- Jalen McMillan
- Tristan Wirfs
There is also skepticism among some experts regarding Atlanta’s motivation, given their elimination from the playoff race—though Mayfield himself has dismissed that narrative.
One tactical concern raised by analysts is Tampa Bay’s need to limit explosive plays from Bijan Robinson, who remains Atlanta’s most dangerous offensive weapon.
National Media Picks: Overwhelming Support For The Bucs
A strong majority of national outlets are siding with Tampa Bay to win—and in many cases, to cover the spread:
- ESPN.com: All eight of 11 experts who submitted picks chose the Buccaneers
- CBSSports.com: Pete Prisco predicts a celebration for the Pirates
- USA Today: Four of six analysts picking against the spread favor Tampa Bay
- Bleacher Report: Six of seven experts back the Bucs to cover
- Pro Football Talk: Mike Florio and Chris Simms both picked Tampa Bay by the same score
- Sports Illustrated: Only Connor Orr dissents among six MMQB staff members
- Sporting News: Vinnie Iyer projects a Buccaneers win and cover
The consensus is clear: analysts across the country believe the matchup favors Tampa Bay, especially at home.
Key Matchup Advantage: Tampa Bay’s Rushing Attack
Moe Moton of Bleacher Report highlighted a specific edge for Tampa Bay that could decide the game—Atlanta’s run defense.
With the Buccaneers tied with the Carolina Panthers atop the NFC South, urgency is expected to be high.
Moton noted that Chris Godwin has seen increased playing time as he continues his recovery from a fibula injury, and the possible availability of Evans and McMillan only strengthens Tampa Bay’s outlook.
Even if Tampa Bay is short-handed at wide receiver, Moton believes the Buccaneers can control the game on the ground:
Tampa Bay is projected to win by a touchdown, with Bucky Irving finding success against the Falcons’ 24th-ranked run defense.
The Week 15 Falcons vs. Buccaneers matchup shapes up as a critical moment in Tampa Bay’s season.
With playoff stakes still very much alive, potential reinforcements returning on offense, and overwhelming national support from NFL analysts, the Buccaneers appear well-positioned for a bounce-back performance.
While Atlanta may play loose with nothing to lose, most experts expect Tampa Bay’s urgency, home-field advantage, and rushing efficiency to be the deciding factors on Thursday night.
FAQs
Who is favored to win Falcons vs. Buccaneers in Week 15?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored by 4.5 points at home.
Why are experts confident in the Buccaneers this week?
Analysts expect a rebound after Week 14, boosted by possible returns of Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, and Tristan Wirfs.
What is the key matchup to watch in this game?
Many experts point to Tampa Bay’s rushing attack against Atlanta’s 24th-ranked run defense, especially with Bucky Irving.