Mandy
Nearly a month into the 2026 tax filing season, many Americans are closely watching their bank accounts and waiting for refunds. President Donald Trump recently stated that this year’s tax refunds are “substantially greater than ever before,” suggesting that changes under his new tax legislation could mean more money back for households.
However, early data from the IRS shows that it may still be too soon to confirm how large those refunds will actually be.
Trump’s Statement on Bigger Refunds
In a recent post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump claimed that taxpayers are receiving significantly larger refunds this year. He referenced estimates suggesting that in certain cases, more than 20% could be returned to taxpayers.
Despite this statement, it remains unclear which data or projections were used to support the claim. The White House has not provided additional clarification.
What Early IRS Data Shows?
While political claims have drawn attention, official IRS filing statistics tell a more measured story.
As of February 6, the average tax refund stood at $2,290, representing an increase of about 11% compared to the same period last year. These numbers were part of the first batch of IRS data released after the filing season began on January 26.
Earlier, on February 13, Treasury Secretary and acting IRS Commissioner Scott Bessent told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that the average refund was roughly 22% higher so far this season. However, he did not clarify:
- How many returns were included in that calculation
- Which comparison period was used
- Whether the data included early filers only
The Treasury Department has not commented on the difference between Bessent’s 22% figure and the IRS’s published 11% increase.
Why It’s Too Early to Draw Conclusions?
Tax experts say the numbers currently available represent only a small portion of total returns.
According to Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, the filing season is still in its early phase. Historically, the average refund amount increases later in February. That jump usually happens when returns that include the:
- Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)
- Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC)
are processed.
Because of this pattern, early averages often appear lower than final seasonal averages. Lautz emphasized that it is “far too early” to determine whether current figures represent a long-term trend.
How Trump’s Tax Law Changes Could Impact Refunds?
Financial institutions are also weighing in on potential refund increases.
Bank of America Securities Projection
In a February 18 research note, Bank of America Securities estimated that the tax law changes introduced under Trump’s legislation could provide an average of $1,000 in stimulus per household during the 2026 filing season.
Analysts noted that roughly half of that increase may come from:
- A higher cap on the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction
- The new “no tax on overtime” deduction
These provisions could significantly benefit certain taxpayers, especially those with higher state taxes or overtime earnings.
Piper Sandler Estimate
Back in October, investment firm Piper Sandler projected that Trump’s retroactive tax cuts could average about $1,000 per tax return, though some filers could receive much more depending on their income and deductions.
Comparing With Last Year’s Refunds
For context, IRS data shows that the average refund through October 17, 2025, was $3,052. That number reflects the full filing season, including late filers and amended returns.
This year’s final average could move higher as more returns are processed, especially once refundable credits are fully included.
Why Refunds Vary From Person to Person?
It’s important to understand that a tax refund is not a bonus from the government. It generally means that a taxpayer overpaid during the year through:
- Paycheck withholdings
- Quarterly estimated payments
If someone paid more taxes than they owed, the IRS returns the difference. On the other hand, if they underpaid, they may owe money instead of receiving a refund.
Individual refund amounts this season will depend on:
- 2025 tax withholding levels
- Eligibility for new tax deductions
- Income changes
- Credit qualifications (EITC, Child Tax Credit, etc.)
Because every taxpayer’s situation is different, refund amounts could vary widely.
What Taxpayers Should Expect Moving Forward?
As more filing data becomes available in the coming weeks, analysts expect a clearer picture to emerge.
If projections from financial institutions prove accurate, many households could see refunds increase by around $1,000 on average. However, those gains will not apply equally to everyone.
For now, experts recommend:
- Filing early if eligible
- Double-checking withholding amounts
- Reviewing eligibility for new deductions
- Avoiding assumptions based solely on early averages
The next round of IRS data releases will likely provide stronger evidence of whether this filing season truly marks a significant jump in refund amounts.
Although President Donald Trump has stated that tax refunds are “substantially greater than ever before,” the current IRS data shows only modest increases so far. Early statistics indicate an 11% rise in average refunds, while other estimates suggest the increase could eventually reach $1,000 per household.
However, tax experts stress that it is still too early in the filing season to confirm any lasting trend. As more returns are processed—especially those including refundable credits—a clearer and more accurate picture will emerge.
Taxpayers should focus on their individual circumstances rather than national averages when estimating their refunds.