Marina
As Memorial Day fades into memory, Missourians are turning their attention to the summer months ahead. After a cool and wet spring, many are curious: how extreme will the heat get this year? Following Missouri’s second-warmest year on record in 2024, combined with it being the warmest year globally, forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS), AccuWeather, and the Old Farmer’s Almanac suggest 2025 may continue that scorching trend.
Let’s break down what to expect this summer in the Show-Me State.
When Does Summer 2025 Officially Begin?
The start of summer depends on whether you follow the meteorological or astronomical calendar:
| Season Type | Start Date | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Meteorological | June 1, 2025 | Based on the calendar months: June, July, August |
| Astronomical | June 20, 2025 | Based on the June solstice—longest day and shortest night of the year |
This year, June 20 will mark the official astronomical start of summer and will bring the longest daylight hours in the Northern Hemisphere.
National Weather Service Forecast for Missouri
The National Weather Service (NWS) predicts a “warmer-than-normal” summer for Missouri, aligning with broader national trends. Here’s a look at their forecast:
- Temperature Outlook: Warmer-than-average for June, July, and August.
- Precipitation: Equal chances for above, near, or below-average rainfall, though signs point to midwestern dryness, hinting at a developing drought.
- Drought Risk: Increasing, especially for central and western Missouri.
This variability suggests local regions might experience very different weather patterns, even within the same state.
AccuWeather Summer 2025 Outlook
AccuWeather also anticipates a hot summer for Missouri, with temperatures up to 2°F above historical averages across the season.
Key predictions include:
- Above-normal temperatures statewide.
- Increased energy consumption due to air conditioning usage, likely causing higher electric bills.
- Potential derechos (long-lived windstorms), which could bring damaging thunderstorms and flash floods, especially in July and August.
AccuWeather warns that residents should stay alert for fast-developing weather systems and prepare for potential disruptions.
Old Farmer’s Almanac Forecast for Missouri
Known for its traditional long-range predictions, the Old Farmer’s Almanac also foresees a blistering summer in Missouri.
Here’s what the Almanac projects:
- Temperature Rise: Up to 4°F above normal across most of the state.
- Precipitation Patterns:
- Hot and dry in central and northern Missouri.
- Hot and rainy in the southeast part of the state.
- Slightly below-average rainfall in most areas, with above-average precipitation in some eastern regions.
The Almanac’s outlook is consistent with other forecasters, reinforcing the likelihood of extreme summer conditions.
Summer 2025 Weather Forecast Table for Missouri
| Weather Source | Temperature Outlook | Rainfall Prediction | Notable Risks |
|---|---|---|---|
| NWS | Warmer than normal | Equal chance above/near/below average | Drought conditions likely |
| AccuWeather | Up to 2°F above average | Slightly below normal in some regions | Derechos, flooding, energy costs |
| Old Farmer’s Almanac | Up to 4°F above normal | Mostly dry; some southeast areas rainy | Extended heat, dryness |
What This Means for Missourians
Residents should prepare for:
- Hotter days and warmer nights than usual
- Greater strain on utilities due to cooling demands
- Variable precipitation, leading to possible droughts in some regions and flood risks in others
Those with outdoor plans, agriculture interests, or vulnerable health should stay informed through local weather alerts and forecast updates.
Summer 2025 in Missouri is expected to be hotter and drier than usual, with forecasts pointing to above-average temperatures and evolving drought risks.
While rainfall will vary by region, most of the state should brace for a challenging season. Staying informed and prepared will be key to managing the intense heat.