Serine
In 2025, Kansas farm income is expected to reach its second-highest level in the last 20 years, largely fueled by $2 billion in government aid aimed at addressing falling crop prices and adverse weather conditions.
This projection comes from agricultural economist Jennifer Ifft, who shared insights during a recent farm income outlook webinar hosted by Kansas State University and the University of Missouri.
“If you adjust for inflation, this is the strongest farm income year in quite a while,” said Ifft, a professor and extension policy specialist at Kansas State University. “The sharp jump from 2024 to 2025 is driven almost entirely by government payments.”
Mixed Fortunes: Livestock Booms, Crops Struggle
The agriculture sector in Kansas is seeing diverging trends. While livestock farmers are benefiting from strong market demand—leading to a $5 billion increase in livestock receipts since 2020—crop farmers face challenges due to falling prices and persistently high input costs.
Crop receipts have declined by about $1.6 billion over the last five years. Although expenses like fertilizer and pesticides have slightly decreased in 2025, they remain 28% and 30% above long-term averages, respectively, based on historical data from 2006 to 2024.
Farm Support Programs Drive Income Growth
Government support has played a key role in stabilizing income. Past payments were issued in response to trade tariffs, the COVID-19 pandemic, and more recently in late 2024 for economic and weather-related losses. These payments will continue to bolster incomes throughout 2025.
Gregg Ibendahl, associate professor of agricultural economics at K-State, shared that without this government intervention, about half of Kansas farms would have posted losses in 2024.
Global Conflicts and Oil Prices Remain a Concern
Ibendahl also warned that ongoing global conflicts—notably in Russia, Ukraine, and the Middle East—could impact oil prices, which would in turn affect diesel and fertilizer costs for farmers. While current oil prices remain stable at around $70 per barrel, any sudden spike could put downward pressure on agricultural profit margins.
National Perspective Mirrors Kansas Trends
At the national level, Alejandro Plastina, director of the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center, echoed these concerns. He highlighted that while the cattle industry remains strong due to limited supply and high prices, field crops face lower prices and stubborn input costs.
Plastina noted that of the $41 billion increase in projected U.S. net farm income for 2025, about $33 billion stems from government assistance. Without further aid in 2026, he warned net farm income could drop by 20%, bringing it back near 2024 levels.
The strong showing in Kansas farm income for 2025 is largely a result of temporary government payments supporting farmers through a year of global economic volatility and market challenges.
While livestock producers continue to thrive, crop growers remain vulnerable due to declining prices and high costs.
The sustainability of this income boost is uncertain, especially without similar federal support in the coming years. Strategic financial planning will be essential for Kansas farmers to navigate future uncertainties.