Mandy
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued its long-range winter weather predictions for December 2025 through February 2026, and the expected conditions vary sharply depending on where you live.
The Climate Prediction Center revealed a seasonal outlook that points toward cold and wet conditions in northern states, while warmer and drier weather dominates the South.
Northern States Likely To See Colder-Than-Normal Winter
A band of states stretching from Washington to Michigan is forecast to experience below-average temperatures, colder even than typical winter conditions in the region.
NOAA indicates that these areas, which usually trend cooler in winter, could face harsher-than-normal cold as early as next month.
Southern U.S. Expected To Warm Up
In contrast, the southern half of the country and portions of the mid-Atlantic are expected to see higher-than-average temperatures.
The Southwest and Florida have the strongest odds of experiencing unseasonably warm winter weather, continuing a trend that aligns with current climate patterns.
Wet In The North, Dry In The South
NOAA’s precipitation outlook mirrors its temperature predictions:
- Northern states may experience increased snowfall and wet conditions.
- The South is forecast to stay drier, especially from the Gulf Coast across the Southwest.
Large parts of the central United States, represented in white on NOAA’s forecast maps, have no clear trend, meaning conditions could swing either way.
Forecast Conditions Driven by La Niña
The predictions match expectations for La Niña, which officially developed last month. Historically, La Niña tends to produce:
- Wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley
- Warm and dry weather across the southern states
La Niña can also worsen drought, particularly in the Southwest and deep South, and NOAA expects this trend to continue through winter. Drought development is also likely in areas of the Northeast, as well as parts of Texas, Louisiana, and neighboring regions.
Cold Holiday Weather Ahead
Millions could feel a burst of winter cold before the season even begins. NOAA warns that below-normal temperatures may arrive as early as November 25, particularly across the Midwest and Plains.
The Thanksgiving weekend forecast shows the cold extending into Texas, the Gulf states, the East Coast, and New England.
Meteorologists note that this shift “signals a move toward more winter-like conditions across the Northwest, Central U.S., and East, including well-below-average temperatures and the possibility of significant snow.”
NOAA’s 2025–26 winter outlook predicts a season split between cold, snowy conditions in the northern states and warm, dry weather across the South, largely influenced by La Niña.
While the central U.S. remains uncertain, widespread drought is expected to persist or worsen in several southern and southwestern regions.
With colder weather arriving as early as Thanksgiving, many Americans may experience winter well before the calendar declares it.