Marina
The St. Louis metropolitan region is at a pivotal demographic crossroads, according to St. Louis University demographer Ness Sándoval, who analyzed preliminary data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2024 American Community Survey (ACS).
While the latest figures show slight population growth after years of stagnation, the data also reveal concerning long-term trends—including outmigration of younger residents, declining birth rates, and a shortage of single-family housing that could hinder future growth.
Sándoval warns that unless local leaders prioritize housing development and retention of young families, St. Louis could face permanent population decline.
The Data Behind the Crossroads
St. Louis has long struggled with slow or negative population growth, especially compared to peer metro areas. The 2024 ACS offers a mixed snapshot of current demographic dynamics:
| Indicator (2024 ACS) | Value | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Metro Population | ~2.78 million | Slight ↑ (0.3%) |
| Median Age | 39.6 years | ↑ from 37.2 in 2010 |
| Net Domestic Migration | -4,200 residents | Ongoing outflow |
| Birth Rate | 10.9 births per 1,000 | ↓ from 13.7 in 2000 |
| Homeownership Rate | 62% | Slight ↓ from 64% in 2010 |
Population growth is flattening, while median age continues to rise, signaling an aging population. Simultaneously, the region is losing more residents to other parts of the U.S. than it gains, especially young professionals and families seeking better job markets and affordable new housing elsewhere.
Housing as the Key to Retention
Sándoval emphasizes housing as the single most critical factor for reversing these trends. The region has not built enough new single-family homes to attract and retain younger households, leading to population stagnation in suburbs and decline in the city core.
Younger families are leaving because of:
- Limited affordable single-family housing inventory
- Older housing stock requiring costly repairs
- Perceptions of declining school quality and infrastructure
Sándoval argues that boosting new home construction, especially starter homes and family-sized units, could help retain millennials and Gen Z residents as they age into homeownership and parenthood.
Economic Implications of Population Stagnation
The demographic slowdown is already affecting the regional economy. A shrinking or stagnant workforce constrains job growth and tax revenue, limiting local governments’ ability to invest in infrastructure, education, and public services.
| Impact Area | Effect of Declining Population |
|---|---|
| Labor Force | Fewer workers to fill skilled jobs |
| Tax Base | Slower growth in local and state revenue |
| Schools | Declining enrollment, school consolidations |
| Housing Market | Fewer buyers, aging housing stock |
If St. Louis fails to stabilize its population, it risks falling behind faster-growing Midwest metros like Kansas City, Nashville, and Indianapolis, which are aggressively building new housing and attracting employers.
Charting a New Course
Sándoval urges policymakers, developers, and civic leaders to align on a regional growth strategy, including:
- Zoning reforms to enable more housing construction
- Targeted incentives for developers to build single-family homes
- Revitalization of aging neighborhoods to attract young buyers
- Strengthening education and transportation systems to retain families
He stresses that this demographic turning point is both a challenge and an opportunity. With coordinated action, St. Louis can reverse its decline and build a sustainable growth model for the coming decades.
The St. Louis region stands at a demographic crossroads, facing critical choices that will shape its future for generations.
Investing in housing, attracting younger families, and reversing outmigration are essential to sustaining population and economic vitality. Without decisive action, St. Louis risks sliding into long-term decline—but with the right strategy, it can spark a new era of growth.