The Storm Track 3 forecast is signaling fire weather concerns at the start of the week, especially in northwest Kansas, as warm temperatures and windy conditions combine to elevate the risk of wildfires.
However, rain is expected to follow as the week progresses, bringing cooler temperatures and potentially some snow by the middle of the week. Here’s a detailed look at what to expect.
Fire Weather Concerns at the Start of the Week
Monday and Tuesday will see a significant increase in wind speeds, with gusts reaching up to 50 MPH. These strong southerly winds will drive up temperatures, contributing to an elevated fire risk across much of the state.
Fire Weather Watches and Warnings are already in effect across large areas, with particular concern for northwest Kansas on Monday and southwest Kansas on Tuesday.
The highest fire risk will be in the southwest Kansas region, but the elevated risk will extend across the entire state. With strong southerly winds, temperatures will rise into the 70s and 80s in many areas, making it a sunny but windy start to the week.
Fire Weather Watches are in effect as the winds will continue to fuel wildfires, especially in areas with dry conditions and low humidity.
Approaching Storm System and Temperature Shifts
After a warm start to the week, the temperature will spike on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures will climb to near 80°F in many parts of the state, and with the strong winds, gusts could reach 50 MPH again.
The combination of the warmth and wind will create a powerful setup for severe weather in some areas, but also allow the system to develop into rain and snow later in the week.
Once the cold front passes, colder air will sweep in from the north. Moisture from the low-pressure system will start colliding with the cold air, setting up the potential for rain and snow across parts of the state.
Rain and Snow: What to Expect
As the storm system moves in on Tuesday evening, rain will begin to fall in northwest Kansas before spreading eastward into the rest of the state.
The rain will change over to snow in areas as colder air moves in. Winter Weather Watches have been issued for a large portion of northern Kansas, where the greatest impacts and heaviest snowfall totals are expected.
The snow will likely accumulate on grass and elevated surfaces, as the ground will not have enough time to cool down for accumulation on roadways.
Snowfall amounts will vary depending on the amount of moisture available for the system to work with. As of the latest forecast, areas along and north of I-70 are expected to receive the heaviest snow.
The forecast for Wednesday morning indicates that temperatures will be in the 50s with rain transitioning to snow as the day progresses, with a 30% chance of rain.
Fire Weather Watches and Warnings in Effect
As mentioned earlier, Fire Weather Watches and Warnings are in place across Kansas for the first half of the week.
These warnings highlight areas where conditions—such as high winds, warm temperatures, and low humidity create the perfect environment for wildfires to start and spread. Residents in the affected areas are encouraged to avoid outdoor burning and exercise caution, especially near dry grass and brush.
The Storm Track 3 forecast indicates a dramatic shift in weather patterns this week, with fire weather concerns at the start and the possibility of rain and snow later on.
Residents in Kansas should prepare for fluctuating temperatures and high winds at the beginning of the week, followed by a cooldown and precipitation midweek. Stay safe, stay informed, and keep an eye on local forecasts as the weather develops throughout the week.